Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Oilers Won't Move Visnovsky, But They Might Move Souray
First off, considering the source of where these rumors started, I don't put much weight behind it being true. That said, if the Oilers are in talks of any kind to trade a big name, big money defenceman; it will be Sheldon Souray who gets asked to waive his no trade clause before Visnovsky goes anywhere.
Lubomir Visnovsky is now second in Oilers scoring with 22 points. He has 7 goals, a terrfic plus/minus - + 11 rating, and he's playing over 20 minutes a game. Lubomir Visnovsky has been everything the Oilers had hoped he'd be and more when they moved Stoll and Greene to obtain him from the Kings.
Last year the Oilers felt the same way, but when Visnovsky went down to injury, the Oilers didn't get to bask in the glory of a great trade, but instead saw how quickly the team took a downward spiral when he was absent from the roster.
Add to that Visnovsky leads the Oilers in shots on net and that's no small feat considering he's picky about when he releases his canon of a shot. You can tell by his 17.9% shooting percentage that he's not just raining bombs that aren't hitting the target.
Visnovsky has found a favorable d-man pairing in Ladislav Smid and while Smid has improved leaps and bounds as a defenceman, I attribute a lot of that success to being paired with Visnovsky. You can tell these two have found chemistry and the Oilers would be silly to break that up.
Meanwhile, Souray has come back from his injury and played well. He's not been the Souray that dominates and scares the opposition on the powerplay like the Souray we know, nor the Souray fans crave for, but I have a feeling that time is coming.
The problem is, the Souray everyone is waiting for, is one dimensional. The Oilers know where they need him to contribute, and teams know where they need to be to stop him. Souray doesn't come close to having the foot speed, quick thinking, offensive talents that Visnovsky does. It makes Visnovsky much harder to contain and as a result a better overall weapon.
One thing Souray seems to have that Visnovsky might not (at least not as much) is trade value. So despite Edmonton wanting both defensemen, Souray will be the one the Oilers explore in possible trades, knowing by moving him, they stand to get the most return.
If you're Sheldon Souray, what do you do if the Oilers come asking? With a no trade clause, he has a great deal of control, but he's also been outspoken in his critiscm of coaching, fans and his teammates. His comments haven't been disrespectful or mean spirited, but represent what can only be a truth as he knows it about the situation he sees himself in.
Perhaps convincing him to waive his clause if the right deal presents itself won't be as difficult as people think.
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Saturday, December 5, 2009
The Edmonton Oilers Just Won, But I Didn’t Recall Anyone’s Name Being Mentioned. an article by "The Prof"
Well, the Oilers are one game under 500. I just finished watching the game between the Oilers and the Stars, and here is my dilemma. I don’t know who led the Oilers to victory. Honest. I heard Dustin Penner’s name often – but perhaps I am biased. I really want him to get points – something to do with that Heatley “thing.” But Penner got no points and looked dis-jointed in the shootout. Cogliano seemed to be leading the charge up and down the ice, but he too had no points.I did notice that Souray blasted some shots on goal during the power play. I see from the box score that Brule and Gagner had lots of time on the ice – and Horcoff had almost 22 minutes; but, I barely heard their names. Honest. The only Oiler’s name I heard consistently was Jeff Deslauriers – who, according to my ears, was the best Oiler today.
So the Oilers got a victory in Dallas – a place where they have only won 4 times in their last 26 games. But, what really am I to make of the game? That the Oilers don’t need Hemsky all that much? That their goal tending is workable – except for an odd off game or two? That a TEAM – not a group of individual stars – can actually win games? I have a lot of questions, and perhaps it will take a couple games to actually see a pattern.
Even the person who named the game’s Three Stars picked Neal, Smid, and Benn. Obviously, he didn’t hear many Oilers’ names either; and, like me, got caught up in the fact that Ladislav Smid – and how can you not love this young guy, really – got his first goal in like 150 games. I got caught up in that!
Anyway, knowing the Oilers, my guess is that they will break my heart over the next week or two by going into the dumps. Then again, there is a chance that I might be wrong – just this one time. Perhaps the fact that I didn’t hear any Oilers’ names is a good thing. Maybe everyone is beginning to play with some spunk – and specific Oilers are not named – either in a good or bad way.
I did notice the play in the Stars’ end a lot today – especially during the last two periods. By the end of Period One, I was thinking – here we go again. But during Period Three, I somehow just expected the Oilers to score – they were playing in the Stars’ end that much.
Ok guys! You are making me think that something good might be starting to happen. I hope I don’t hear any more of your names over the next week – and you keep winning. I know these are games on the road – but Florida, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis at least give you a shot at being above 500 when you come home!
Could this be the start of a run? GO you No-Names, GO!
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Thursday, December 3, 2009
Oilers Shoot from 15th to 12th in the West. What's Next?
The sky is falling in Edmonton, or at least that's what fans, writers and popular opinion around the city seems to suggest.That is until the Oilers laid a beating on last year Stanley Cup finalists the Detroit Red Wings.
Edmonton was simply a better team, out-shooting the Red Wings in every period, out-working the Red Wings and their players, especially their goaltending, was better. This looked like a Detroit team that is currently sitting on the outside of the playoffs looking in. But this did not look like an Oiler team a the bottom of the Western Conference standings.
So what gives?
How can a team full of injuries, lacking superstars, and full of AHL players beat a team with elite level talent like that of the Detroit Red Wings? "Crust".
It's been a long time since the Oilers can say they produced the kind of "crust" Pat Quinn said this team would have. With the return of Ryan Stone, JF Jacques and the emergence of Ryan Potulny and Gilbert Brule, the Oilers finally seemed to come out with the attitude that to win this game, they'd have to do the things Detroit wasn't willing to.
For Edmonton to be successful in spite of the hurdles facing them, that attitude will not only have to continue, it will have to become their montra.
Players like Robert Nilsson, who returned to the lineup after missing significant time with a concussion, will have to play more than the skill he was gifted with. He'll need to use that skill (which he did, scoring one of the prettiest goals so far this NHL season), and find a second gear in terms of overall teamwork and effort and bring it to the rink every night. He did that against Detroit and it showed.
Patrick O'Sullivan will have to continue to get lucky bounces to get him off of the snake-bitten path. Even lousy goals can boost a players confidence and overall output. Thursdays game showed just how much. He showed effort which was virtually invisible over the past five or six games.
Others will need to continue to step up aswell, because despite how little it would take to go from 15th to 12th, and then say 12th to 8th, with a 5-1 or 6-2 run, the Oilers with lacking games at hand could see the opposite happen if they stand-pat and others develop streaks of their own.
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Realistic Options for Next Season: Is a Team Blow Up Easier Said Than Done?
David Staples brought to attention an interesting scenario should the Oilers decide that a rebuild becomes priority #1. I'm not sure I'm necessarily ready to write-off this season yet, but in all reality, one has to notice that the Oilers chances of a post-season spot get slimmer and slimmer each passing day.Staples talked about how, should the Oilers choose, to move contracts the average fans seems to call impossible to move. Most think that high-priced, long-term contracts in todays NHL are something each team will be stuck with. Staples makes a case that we may be assuming too much.
What I found most interesting about David Staples "expired contract" theory, is that in his list of players for each team whose contracts are coming due, there are a number of players that might be possible, if not easier more attractive targets for the Edmonton Oilers next season than what this season offers.
Most of us shutter at the thought of moving Sheldon Souray, Lubomir Visnovsky, Nikolai Khabibulin or others, simply because on an Edmonton team full of rookies and inconsistencies, they seem the most stable.
Staples did an excellent job at explaining how it would be possible to move those names, so I won't get into it here, but would you feel more at ease with their exits if players like Joe Corvo, Adrian Aucoin, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Anton Volchenkov, Evgeni Nabokov, Martin Biron or others became available to take their place?
I'm not suggesting by any means that these players are shoe-ins as available to Edmonton, nor will their respective teams not do everything in their power to keep some of them. In fact, I'll be honest, many of them are not really options here in Edmonton.
That said, some of them are bound to find new homes and for Edmonton to be more successful than they are now, they don't need to attract all of those players. They need one, maybe two at best to compliment a group of young prospects that could be close to making the jump to the NHL, while at the same time making salary space for the many expiring contracts the Oilers currently see coming due.
Consider what happened this past summer with teams who filled their rosters with what many considered "spare parts" after the initial crop of big name free agents moved. Phoenix, Colorado, Atlanta and others have made the practice of waiting not only feasible, but successful.
Consider too that a lot of those teams that made big splashes over the past couple years no longer have the room to make splashes again. Those teams that drafted well are now paying for the skill they've drafted and other teams can't afford to keep expiring contracts because they have too much tied up in their current rosters.
Case in point in San Jose. Unless either Marleau or Nabokov are willing to take larger pay-cuts to stay with the Sharks, the potential for San Jose to afford both players becomes difficult. They have Joe Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi, Rob Blake and others they'd either have to work out deals with, let go or trade to make it work. Of course, Marleau and Nabokov are having stellar years so they'll be worth top dollar on the open market.
There are other teams in a similar situation, but my point is more if they Oilers can clean house or at least move one or two big money contracts at the deadline for expiring deals, who might I consider a good pick for Edmonton once the dust settles?
Ray Whitney
He's a short-term solution at his age, but that's exactly what Edmonton needs at this juncture. While the young guys develop their game, who better than a local veteran like Ray Whitney, who might be allowed to slip away from a team in Carolina far worse off than the Oilers are.
A local product, it might make sense that Whitney spend the last one or two years on of his career in his home town. The team that picks up Whitney should get him at a discount if he doesn't stay with the Hurricanes and he's bound to net you 15-20 goals a season easily.
Carolina won't make the playoffs and they'll be a seller at the deadline. Pick up a player like Whitney and convince him to sign for one year at an affordable rate.
Tomas Holmstrom
I made a case a while back that it would have been nice to see the Oilers make a play to trade for the grizzly forward. Holmstrom was coming off a poorer season and might have been had for a good price thanks to Detroits desire to make Johan Franzen that guy.
However, with the injury to Franzen, Holmstrom has stepped up and proved how valueable an asset he can be.
Still, with a returning Franzen and a crop of young kids in Detroit's farm system, Holmstrom may choose to either a) finish his career in Detroit at a discounted rate or b) go for one or two more good years of revenue with a team willing to pay something for what he brings.
Detroit seems to be a team that takes on short-term inexpensive contracts to compliment a core of long-term players. At Holmstrom's pace, he'll get offers higher than $2.25 million and it won't likely be Detroit offering it. Edmonton could pony up $3 million per and for a guy with the size of the heart Holmstrom has, he'd be worth it.
Holmstrom won't be going anywhere at the deadline, but at the start of free agency, he could be one of those surprises that takes a while to get signed.
Marc-Andre Bergeron
No one seems to want to keep this kid, yet every year he proves that in the right situations he can be a real asset to a team. He was good in Edmonton on the powerplay and he's been good there in Montreal since they picked him up last minute thanks to injuries.
People seem to think Bergeron is a terribly horrid defensive player, and it might be true that he's not considered a shut-down guy, but he's a respectable plus/minus -1 on a Montreal team that gets scored on frequently.
Frankly I find Bergeron a better investment for my money at $750,000 than I do Gilbert at $4 million and Grebeshkov at $3.2 million. When Bergeron signs again for less than $1 million for whatever team he's shipped to next, I'll still feel that way knowing a reliable offensive d-man at his price allows for investment in other areas.
Martin Biron or Evgeni Nabokov
If the Oilers can successfully move Khabibulin, perhaps they can get the goalie situation right this time around. It's not that I don't like Khabibulin. I have to admit, much like Roloson before him, he's done his job and then some to keep the Oilers in games.
However, by next season the Oilers should know if either Dubnyk or Deslauriers are items you keep or items you discard. If they discard both, make your big splash in net with a tender like Nabokov. He turns 35 literally 24 days after free agency opens, so his cap hit won't hurt the Oilers if he retires early and he's still good for a 4 or 5 year contract. Offer more money than San Jose can afford and he might be attainable.
If you keep one of Deslaurier or Dubnyk, go with another starter/back-up who can compliment who you keep but at a less expensive rate than $3.75 million per season.
Staples mentions Vesa Toskala, Marty Turco, Dan Ellis, Chris Mason, Jose Theodore, and Biron as potential goalies to hit the market. Like this past summer, there may be more goalies available than there are spots to put them and while many of the goalies on that list haven't played the amount of games Khabibulin has, their numbers are as good or better in many cases.
Other Notables:
Robert Lang and Manny Malhotra - Should have been offered a try-out by Edmonton at the very least. Perhaps Edmonton will realize that ignoring a need to start next season isn't wise. A partial blow-up to give them room to even do that is a valid reason.
Doug Weight - Seems to like NYI, but might make a move for a few extra bucks. He's still extremly valueable and a great mentor with a team first attitude.
Adrian Aucoin - Veteran d-man who can play defence, but has a rocket of a shot from the point. Great example for others in the lockerroom too. Potential captain if the Oilers could move Moreau and Souray.
There are a lot of options out there to end this season and start 2010. Should the Oilers not unload some players and big money contracts, options won't exist in Edmonton.
But then again, what do I know. The way Edmonton currently runs this team and how I would are two completely different things and have been for a long time.
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Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Did the Oilers Keep the Wrong Piece of the Cole Trade?
At the deadline in last seasons race to the playoffs (which the Oilers missed), Erik Cole was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes for Patrick O'Sullivan and a 2nd round pick.That 2nd rounder was then moved to Buffalo for Ales Kotalik.
During the offseason, the Edmonton Oilers had some tough decisions to make. With too many contracts, not enough salary cap space and a team in the New York Rangers who were willing to offer up more for Kotalik than the Oilers figured he was worth, Edmonton chose to keep Patrick O'Sullivan for his skill as a shooter, versatile style and two-way defensive play.
By all accounts, moving Cole was the right thing to do even though it fell under some harsh criticism. Cole was becoming a UFA, there was value for him on the trade market and he was having a less than stellar year for Edmonton.
Take a look at his numbers in Carolina this season, and you'll quickly realize dumping Cole for what the Oilers were able to obtain was impressive.
The problem is in Patrick O'Sullivan's play. To say the least, he's been less than what the Oilers expected from a shooter, having scored to date only 4 goals and 13 points in 27 games. To boot, for a defensive specialist, O'Sullivan's plus/minus - 11 is cause for concern.
O'Sullivan looked to be ready for a great season having sparked chemistry with Mike Comrie in pre-season, but Comrie has run into illness issues for most if not all of the regular season, so that chemistry never carried over. O'Sullivan has been unable to find that kind of chemistry with any other current forward on the Oilers roster and Edmontonians seem to be just waiting for something positive to come from O'Sullivan's game.
Meanwhile, over in New York, Kotalik is making a case that the Oilers made an error in judgement. Kotalik, who took off on a tear to start the season, and while he's since slowed along side the rest of the Ranger (less of course Gaborik, who's been a stud) still has 6 goals and 18 points in 26 games.
Those numbers themselves are not all that impressive and an argument can be made that Kotalik's 0% faceoff percentage can gladly stay in New York as can his plus/minus - 12. The difference I suppose being that Kotalik was never seen as a strong defensive presence, while O'Sullivan was to provide that style of smart two-way hockey.
Knowing what the Oilers seem to see now, would they have been better served to keep a proven one-trick pony in Kotalik?
It's a debate that likely wouldn't find many people in agreement, but it strikes an interesting question.What is it about tracking back the pieces of that trade, that make everyone involved in it's plot-line a much worse player for having been connected to it?
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