Sam Gagner was set to go through what is often an ugly process. Arbitration hearings are two sides getting together and pointing out all the faults of the other side in hopes that a private third party will agree one way or the other. The player tends to get the better deal financially, but in the process, takes a crap kicking in terms of his ego. Sam Gagner's hearing was set for today.

Arbitration is not a process anyone likes -- unless maybe you're a hockey team with a lesson to teach and your player is Sean Avery.

For Gagner, not wanting to go through the line up and bash me proceedings, was enough to convince him to sign with the Edmonton Oilers just hours before his hearing on a one-year $3.2 million deal. Very reasonable money for a player who by almost every measure is a legit second line center in the NHL.

It is the one-year term that we're hearing was the sticking point for the Oilers. Sam Gagner is a hard working NHL'er. He has consistently proven he can get you 15-18 goals and 40-45 points, but the Oilers aren't sure he can do more than that. Their concern in locking him up long term is that they've seen the finish line with this player and not the starting point.

Edmonton getting Gagner on a one year terms means they'll know for sure by the end of this coming NHL season when Gagner plays with a mix of Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Ales Hemsky, Nail Yaupov and perhaps Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. If one can't get 50 points with these line mates, they probably never will.

For Edmonton, this is very much a win and Gagner takes much of the risk. The ball is in Sam's court now and he'll have to prove with a solid two-way likely 20 goal and 55 point season, he is worth what he and his agent think he is. He'll have to do so all while avoiding major injury and he'll have to do so in a potentially shortened lock-out season, with a new CBA looming that could greatly affect his next deal.

The best part for the Oilers, is that at the end of this year Gagner will still be an restricted free agent. This means Edmonton will have a lot of control in their next negotiation and should they lose Gagner to an offer sheet, will pick up Dustin Penner like compensation.

The Oilers aren't risk free however. Edmonton's is taking a chance that this is the season Sam Gagner breaks out with line mates that should make anyone look offensively gifted. Should that happen, the Oilers will need to reward Gagner with a four to five year, $4 million plus type contract. They'll have to do so at the same time as allocating cap money to Eberle and Hall who will also be ready for new deals.

The pressure is solely on Sam Gagner. The reward is also potentially very great if he not only handles that pressure well, but thrives under it.

The Edmonton Oilers have agreed to terms with goal tender Devan Dubnyk. Terms just released that Dubnyk is getting $7 million over the two seasons.

Also hearing Oilers have come to terms with defenseman Jeff Petry on a similar two-year deal worth $1.75 million per season.

Both players good prospects with a solid season in 2011/2012, the Oilers seem to feel that short-term contracts with a little flexibility is the better way to go. Jeff Petry will look like a steal if he continues along the trend he started last season and Dubnyk is now being paid as a starting goalie, so he'll be looking at 50-55 games this season.

His numbers last season were strong with a .914 save percentage and 2.67 GAA on a very bad Oilers team with inexperienced and injured defense. It may not look it now, but Dubnyk could prove to be worth every penny of the $3.5 if he doesn't suffer setbacks in his numbers and the better blue line in front of him allows him to do his thing.

More to come...

Ryan Suter and Zach Parise -- $98 million each over 13 years. The kicker? These contracts were handed out and accepted with the Minnesota Wild.

In our last blog, we mentioned that the Flyers were that team with the largest tabled offer, but cited Minnesota as a team to watch for. This was before the signings happened. I kind of saw the writing on the wall, but I'll admit, I didn't see this coming.

Taking a page out of the Miami Heat book, I'm shocked that Suter and Parise not only stuck together, but did so by heading to a team that has made the playoffs about as many times as the Oilers in the last nine seasons. Perhaps the tide is changing.

Jaromir Jagr and Ryan Whitney were overpaid and went to Dallas. Matt Carle was overpaid and went to Tampa. Garrison got six years after one really good offensive burst in Vancouver (the money isn't that bad, but the terms is a bit out there).

And the Oilers landed prized prospect Justin Schultz.

Where is all the traditional noise made by the Rangers, Red Wings, Flyers and Blackhawks of the world?

Oiler fans think Edmonton has been quiet, these teams are ghost-towns in comparison being eclipsed only by Nashville who probably feels like a pile of dog poop right about now.

Edmonton is smart to wait what's coming out, because what's coming won't be pretty.

Free agents like Jason Arnott, Ruslan Fedotenko, Alex Semin, Shane Doan, Dominic Moore, Carlo Colaiacovo, Daniel Winnik and others are going to get huge paydays because the big teams missed out on the big guys. The Oilers shouldn't be fool enough to get into such a mess.

If there are scrap pieces down the road that are left for the taking, the Oilers might make an addition or two, but trade is their best option at this point. You don't want to get in a bidding war with teams who traditionally spend a ton of money and haven't yet. They're itching to spend what they have.

There are also teams who aren't at this new $54 million cap floor. The Oilers are right in the middle.

Let the teams overspend and lay in the beds they make five years from now.

This was a busy week for the Oilers. First there was the Justin Schultz saga that had every hockey fan -- at least in eight hockey markets -- all over twitter. Quickly following the franchise moment for the Oilers, there was the nice contract finally agreed to by Ryan Smyth to remain in the blue and orange. Just those moves alone made the Oilers along with #1 overall pick Nail Yakupov a much improved team.

Most agree however the Oilers aren't done, nor should they be if the playoffs are a serious consideration this season. Since Smyth and Hordichuk (who also re-upped), the Oilers haven't made a sound. Some fans are getting a bit stir crazy. July 1st will do that do a hockey fan.

I do however believe the Oilers have a plan. I also believe it's a strong plan and smart not to get involved in what looks to be $90 millon pay days for players who are fantastic, but will never be worth $90 millon. Instead, Edmonton plans to wait for the Suter, Parise, Nash, Ryan and Carle smoke to clear and then they'll pounce.

Instead of jumping in and trying to hit two homeruns (Schultz being one), Edmonton will wait for teams to lose their mind, overspend and Edmonton plans to walk-up to the plate and hit a game-winning double in the ninth inning.

The Oilers management team knows they have at least two areas of need:

1) A top four defensman
2) Some skilled grit in their top nine (preferred top six) forward positions

a distant 3) a back-up plan in goal

Number three doesn't concern me as much. Dubnyk looks to be the real deal and Khabibulin, while losing (or perhaps completely lost) his starting goalie skill, can still be useful in a more limited role. 25-30 games for Khabibulin I believe will ensure he's healthy, not over-worked and one of the stronger number two netminders in the NHL.

However, when it comes to the first two points, the Oilers are well aware of their needs and I believe have the names on a short-list of who they'd like. Their plan? To wait for the big UFA fish to land and the after-effects of said UFA's final destinations to create a need to offload contracts on their new respective teams. The Oilers intend to take advantage and be waiting in the wings.

The following are the names I believe Edmonton is watching for (I chose these teams because they are rumored to be the most commonly mentioned teams for the big ticket players on the market):

1. Jay Bouwmeester

Ok, nobody thinks Calgary has a shot at the big-two, but it hasn't stopped them from spending money. Enter the dilemma of Jay Bouwmeester.

Bouwmeester isn't being shopped we don't believe. We also don't believe him to be at the top of Edmonton's list, but Calgary is in a tricky position. If Sven Baertschi makes the team (and it looks like he will), Calgary is likely still a forward short of icing a full team and they are currently only $3 million from the cap.

Could Calgary ice a team that close to the cap? Yes, they could, but moving Bouwmeester's $6.8 cap hit would help a lot. The Oilers wouldn't normally want to take a hit that large, but the beauty in Bouwmeester, is that his cap hit comes off the books in two-years. Plenty of time for the Oilers to move forward with their youngsters and without cap troubles.

Bouwmeester was grossly overpaid, since coming on board with the Flames, but with the new cap ceiling and the contracts being dished out to heavy minute playing defensemen, Bouwmeester is technically only now slightly overpaid. The Oilers also believe he can improve his offensive totals if put in the right position.

Feaster has gone on record saying he wants more grit in his lineup. Players tough to play against. Bouwmeester out, Peckham/Sutton, Jones, and a draft pick in? Hard to say what Calgary would ask, but the cap hit might play a factor here.

2. Marc - Edouard Vlasic

I don't see why the Sharks would want to move Vlasic, but they are a team rumored to be in on Rick Nash. Pavelski is the name we hear going the other way and while the Sharks will have to add other pieces and draft picks based on Scott Howson's demands, Nash's cap hit puts San Jose close to the ceiling if they land him in trade.

The Sharks won't move Boyle, Burns or Stuart (partly due because they wouldn't want to and because of the NTC clauses) so Vlasic is the odd-man out with a cap number that makes space.

Vlasic is a 23 minute a night defenseman. He was a plus +11 is 6'1 200 lbs and can add a bit on offense.

3. Nicklas Hjalmarsson

Chicago is rumored to be pushing hard for Ryan Suter. If they land him, Hjalmarsson is easily being moved and likely for pennies on the dollar. This is a prime candidate for the Oilers.

6'3 and 207 lbs, Hjalmarsson didn't really live up to expectations in Chicago, but he wasn't bad either. Plays 20 plus minutes a night, adds not much offense but is reliable in his own zone. Would really help the Oilers in the goals allowed department.

4. Scott Hartnell

This only happens if both Suter and Parise wind up in Flyer-land and we've heard that when it comes to the money offers both Suter and Parise are considering, the Flyers have offered the highest paydays. Should either player (or especially both) land there, Philadelphia is over the cap.

Hartnell had a great year and his previous season puts Philadelphia in a sell high position. Chances are he won't repeat the year he just had and Holmgren isn't afraid to trade big name players. Should Parise and Suter land with the Flyers, it's likely fans wouldn't even notice Hartnell's exit. Assuming he's willing to trade his NTC.

Whether Hartnell scores 37 goals again ever or not, he's still a consistent 20 plus goal man, he plays big and he'd be exactly what the Oilers would want to improve their top six toughness.

Hartnell only has one year left on his $4.2 million hit and should he repeat his performance and be due a huge raise, Edmonton could feel ok letting him go or trading him at the deadline if they aren't in the playoff picture.

The Flyers also will be owing big raises to RFA Wayne Simmonds at the end of the 2013 season and Matt Read at the end of 2014. If the CBA changes and the Flyers have tied up money in Suter and Parise, the Flyers won't be able to keep them both and may see the writing on the wall.

5. Jakub Voracek

Much like Hartnell, moving Voracek only happens if Parise and Suter land, but Voracek is currently an RFA and due a raise. Might be easier to trade him than negotiate a deal with him if all the money is tied up.

He's big, he's got hands and he's just hitting the best years of his career. He's fit well into Edmonton's top six or nine depending on how the lines are rolling and players are producing or struggling.

The bottom line here is that even if the Oilers sign Gagner to a $3.5 million dollar deal, Dubnyk to a $2.5 million hit and Petry to a $3 million multi-year hit, Edmonton still has money to spend. Their plan is to improve by trade and include a few contracts and prospects in said trades.

-----

The Oilers aren't done. We've heard that an offer has been tabled to Matt Carle (one he's not likely to accept because he'll get more money elsewhere), but Edmonton is aware of the market.

Teams like Pittsburgh, Minnesota and the Rangers are names to watch as the UFA saga unfolds. There are likely assets to become available that aren't currently. Or, as Steve Tambellini explained in his after day-one presser, "GM's were kicking tires at the draft to see if other teams  would be available in player "x" is they became available".

Give it a couple days Oiler fans. Don't be in a big rush to make a move. You likely won't like what leaves if the Oilers rush things.

We said it in our Same Old, Same Old post -- that Krueger should hopefully do most of the talking in the presentation made to d-man prospect Justin Schultz. Well, we found out Saturday that Justin Schultz chose the Oilers over 26 other teams and new head coach Ralph Krueger was a major factor.

The twitter world was buzzing all day waiting for the verdict and when the news finally broke, one tweet that caught my attention was from a reliable source...


James Duthie of TSN: Those who were in the room say Oilers new coach Ralph Krueger was incredibly impressive in his presentation to Justin Schultz.


This is why the Oilers chose Krueger. He has the ability to send a message that gets received loud and clear and makes you want to go to bat for him.

When asked, Justin Schultz commented "it was awesome when I met him and I'm really excited to hopefully get the opportunity to play for him".

Schultz was obviously wow'd by the Gretzky and Coffey phone calls and Edmonton was smart to use that tool if it was at their disposal, but if I'm the Edmonton Oilers or even more, if I'm Ralph Krueger, I'm thinking, 'not a bad first couple of days for the new bench boss in Edmonton'.

Just two days on the job and you get the first overall pick in Nail Yakupov who should get you 20-30 goals in his sleep and quickly after land one of the most touted UFA's in this years crop and an offensive blue-liner in Justin Schultz. Schultz, whether he wanted to or not, became the Brad Richards of last year, where everyone wanted him and only one team would win.

Fans from at least six other teams waited. They found themselves glued like Oiler fans were to the twitterverse until one at a time each team was eliminated. The masses quickly turned from optimists to haters when the news came via the Oilers twitter feed that they'd signed Schultz. As an Oiler fan, if you didn't know who Justin Schultz was, such reaction is the real tell that people think this kid will be something special. When everyone else hates on you because you got what they wanted, you know you've got something good.

But, with Yakupov waiting to start at right wing and Schultz working toward a top-four defensive role, what's left -- perhaps literally?

Well left winger Ryan Smyth still lingers. It looks as though Smyth has turned down Edmonton's final offer and will test free agency. My guess is that someone will give Smyth close to what he wants and that team won't be the Oilers. It means that while Edmonton potentially has enough offensive fire-power on LW in Magnus Paajarvi to fill the hole, a two-way LW is on the Oilers radar if for nothing other than penalty kill minutes. Paajarvi needs to find his groove offensively. To ask him to tackle the tough minutes that Ryan Smyth did, wil hamper Paajarvi significantly.

Edmonton also needs to add one more top-pair defenseman according to many and I would tend to agree. Their core seems to be coming along with the signing of Schultz, but they are at least one veteran top minutes guy away from having a good back-end that can handle tough minutes and injuries, if and when they arrive.

The Oilers could look to accomplish this task through trade instead of free agency. With names like Bouwmeester, Methot, and Yandle potentially on the block, they might find the value in terms of dollars spent for contracts that are running down instead of just beginning, this would make more sense.

Edmonton should have an interesting day tomorrow. I'm especially interested to see if free agents start to see Edmonton as a destination of interest instead of a plague you'd absolutely want to avoid.

While there's a lot going on in Edmonton Oiler-land, is it me or does it seem to feel like a lot of the same old, same old?

Let me start by saying, that I'm not opposed to the hiring of Ralph Krueger as head coach of the Edmonton Oilers. I think in fact it's the type of hire the Oilers needed to make. A coach with experience (maybe not NHL head coaching -- but a healthy resume none the less), and a man who is respected and liked by the young core of this team and a man with a passionate vision. If there is one thing Krueger is known for, it's on his ability to deliver a motivational speech.

He's going to need to be not just good at it, but really good at it if he expects to see change in the results column where change is not very present inside the dressing room.

To date, only one new face has arrived since the Oilers finished 29th place last season. That being the draft selection of Nail Yakupov, who should be playing right wing when the Oilers open the season in October and is currently showcasing his skills at the Oilers development camp at Millenium Place in Sherwood Park.

The hire of Krueger and the retaining of both Steve Smith and Kelly Buchberger as assistant coaches means the faces will stay the same in the directors chair, but the message -- one that Steve Tambellini has touted as the real need for a new coach -- must change. That's hard to do when new blood and a new delivery isn't a by-product of a new coach that hasn't already been here.

Krueger has his work cut out for him. His biggest hurdle will be in finding a way to do what Renney and Pat Quinn before him couldn't -- that is get the veterans to chip in. The Edmonton Oilers are a team of youth. That is their future. But to succeed, they'll need contribution from the Horcoff's, Hemsky's, and Belanger's of the team to try and match the intensity level and effort put forth by the youth on a nightly basis.

I believe that's why Krueger was hired. That message has to be not only delivered, but received and demonstrated as understood by everyone on the team. If it isn't, a lot of people will be held accountable and none faster than current GM, Steve Tambellini.

Tambellini is putting a lot of faith in Krueger who will get his first chance to really showcase his motivational talents when he, along side Kevin Lowe, Steve Tamebellini, and Taylor Hall will pitch young defensive college prospect Justin Schultz on the merits of becoming an Oiler.

Schultz has placed Edmonton on a short-list of five teams -- Edmonton and Vancouver considered by many to the be the two favorites. My hope, is that if Krueger is as good as they say he is at sending a message and having it be received and accepted, Krueger and Taylor Hall will do most of the talking. Young star to potential young star and coach to prospect wanting a chance to produce results leading into a big time contract in a couple years.

If the Oilers can't convince Schultz, and our history as Oiler fans should let us know that it's a bad idea to get  our hopes up too much, there will be major need to use free agency and trades to bolster their blue-line. Again, where have we heard this story before? Go after the big name free agent and strike out. Try your hand and only succeed by drastically overpaying for the wrong player.

Even at Oilers prospect camp where fans are delighted to see the youth (mainly Yakupov) energize crowds with his goal celebrations, many are stopping to suggest that he cool it before insulting goalies and veterans he hasn't even played with yet.

These same veterans that are the problem in Edmonton. If you ask me, what Yakupov is doing is exactly what the Oilers need right now. A brash, confident young potential star to rub a few noses in the same old, same old. There needs to be a wake-up call to this team, and while we sit here waiting to see if we'll again come away empty handed in the Schultz sweepstakes or if the same coach who's already been in the room can change the perception, Yakupov is the only real visible difference. It's a difference I like.

An article by the Prof...

Niccolo Machiavelli was a Renaissance philosopher, whose works is more than 500 years old. Some see him as evil, encouraging people to do whatever it takes to achieve their goals. Indeed, the phrase "the ends justify the means" is attributed to him and Machiavellian (a term from his famour work, The Prince) has come to mean cunning, deceitful, and manipulative. Others see him as a realist whose insights influence modern political ideas.

Few however have sought Machiavelli's advice about hockey. That said, perhaps many of his ideas for achieving political succes and power translate into hockey's climate of intense competition. In this blgo, we take seven of Machiavelli's ideas and translate them into the needs of hiring the perfect coach for the Edmonton Oilers. 

Here are his ideas, with our added thoughts. 

Machiavelli Idea #1: “Good leaders understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity and are able to turn both to their advantage.”

A good coach’s most important job is to find innovative solutions to the issues that face the team. No team will go unscathed throughout the entire season. Each team faces obstacles – game after game, and practice after practice. What separates good coaches from poor coaches is how they deal with these obstacles. Because, to a good coach, no obstacle, no opportunity. Teams face similar obstacles and face similar barriers: it is the team that rose to the challenge that eventually wins over the long haul.

Machiavelli Idea #2: “Nothing great was achieved without danger.” and “Where the willingness is great, the difficulties cannot be great.”

Arguably, Tom Renney was a good coach and helped provide a calm space for the young Oilers’ players to grow and develop. But, with a young team, big risks often lead to great rewards. Few risks lead to mediocre performance: it is the risk-taker who holds the promise to lead the Oilers to great times. We believe the willingness to take risks is a critical success factor for future Oiler success. “The coach should take big risks and encourage players to do so as well – that is what we see as Oiler Hockey! Furthermore, it gets harder as you get older and begin to 'acquire' things you don't want to risk losing.” Recently departed Apple CEO Steve Jobs reminds us, “Time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. The only way to do great work is to love what you do.”

Machiavelli Idea #3: “Whosoever desires constant success must change his conduct with the times.”

A good hockey coach must be able to adapt quickly to change. His mind must be flexible. This might be especially true when dealing with young hockey players – a nagging injury, a prolonged slump, a young player getting “down on himself,” youthful exuberance off the ice, the stress and grind of a long season, momentary mental lapses from another team. All these events call for the ability to see the times and change proactively to meet the possibilities that the times present. We believe it would be a mistake to get someone set in his ways – with an unchangeable “system” that must be followed, or else.

Machiavelli Idea #4: “I'm not interested in preserving the status quo; I want to overthrow it.”

There is tradition and there is status quo. In Edmonton, our tradition is what we call Oiler’s Hockey. It relies on speed, grit, quick turnarounds, and attack. We tolerate on-ice mistakes – actually hoping to trade mistake for mistake, because we are faster and quicker than our opponents. That is Oiler Hockey. But, we also seem mired in a status quo that accepts finishing out of the playoffs – way down in the standings. And, this status quo must change. We need a coach who will simply overthrow it. We need a coach who will question common wisdom that we are willing to wait. We need a coach so NOT OKAY with the status quo that he seeks a better way to do things – one that crushes the recent molds. Machiavelli also said, “There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.” Bringing change takes guts. The Oilers need a coach with pucks.

Machiavelli Idea #5: “The first method for estimating the intelligence of a leader is to look at the men he has around him.”

Weak coaches surround themselves with weak assistant coaches. Strong coaches always hire the best people they can find. Weakness leads to dysfunction and gets stuck in a lower stage of development. Who are the co-coaches the new coach will bring in? Will they act like adults, or more like children? Will they work as a team? Will they act decisively? Machiavelli also noted, “The wise man does at once what the fool does finally.” We need coaches who act decisively without over-planning.

Machiavelli Idea #6: “The more sand has escaped from the hourglass of our life, the clearer we should see through it.”

Finally, it would be nice if the coach were older. Let’s call it the “Darryl Sutter Syndrome.” Sutter will be 54 in August. That is an age that brings with it wisdom. The perfect Edmonton Oiler coach should be someone who has guts, can think on the fly, can act decisively, and who has wisdom gained from experience.

Subban

There was word that Subban was back on the block and talks heated up with Edmonton. It appears those talks have slowed as Tambellini just told Pierre LeBrun that he doubts he'll move the pick. Seems as though the return Montreal wanted was a bit too much and that's understandable from a Montreal point of view.

Larionov

There was a report that Igor Larionov was upset when Jason Gregor asked him to join his show. "I don't talk to Edmonton and Edmonton doesn't talk to me." There was some immediate backlash that this meant Edmonton wasn't going to draft Yakupov. We've also heard now, Edmonton hasn't talked to Ryan Murray's agent either in weeks and that Edmonton did in fact contact Newport Sports.

Roster Moves

Edmonton is looking to move it's second round pick and a roster player to improve their blue-line. Word is Hemsky, but Edmonton also willing to part with Jones, Belanger, Eager and Omark. When names like Smid and Petry come up, it's a non-started for the Oilers.

Rick Nash

Looks like Columbus couldn't find a trade partner and is going to wait until after July 1st and see where Parise goes feeling the market will warm up.

Luongo to Toronto Close

The only trade that looks not only possible but probable is Luongo to Toronto. Burke and Gillis have been seen having long talks. What appear to be more than just friendly chatter.

We'll see if something actually gets done.