Surprising many, especially after GM Steve Tambellini said it would be a slow day on July 1st, the Edmonton Oilers did a lot to change aspects of their team. Addressing holes in the toughness, face-off and penalty kill, they also added a sink or swim reclamation project on defense.

For the most part, Oilers management are getting good grades from media and fans on the moves they made and it's starting to look as though Edmonton is no longer the last place on a free agents list.

The real question is what's next? The Oilers have too many bodies and have placed some prospects who were likely looking to make a jump now on the backburner until space can be cleared to play them. In our view, the following are possible scenarios:

1) Cogliano is moved.

The signing of Eric Belanger has virtually guaranteed that either Cogs or Gagner go. Gagner has much bigger upside and a fair contract. The Oilers will likely keep Gagner unless a top 4 d-man is part of any return. Renney likes Cogliano and he's found a new way to define himself as a player, but it might be too little too late as the 40 point two-way veteran in Belanger makes more sense.

Word is, the Rangers had some interest which leads me to our next possibility.

2) Tom Gilbert is traded.

The Rangers also had interest, but a deal that was to include Gilbert and Cogliano for Brandon Dubinsky fell apart. May be as well since the Oilers can't really afford to move Gilbert until they replace him. Some say Jeff Petry is that guy, but he's still very unproven.

3) Oilers look for possible goaltending assistance.

There is some word that the Oilers briefly called the Vokoun camp and were told "not interested". That is until Vokoun was passed over by a number of other teams for either costing too much or having other options. The Vokoun camp called the Oilers back as they did a few other teams and there are 2-3 teams potentially interested in Tomas Vokoun including Edmonton.

If the Oilers land him, if will have to be to overpay for one year or give term. If they give term what becomes of Khabibulin? At least with a term Bulin's unmoveable cap hit becomes somewhat manageable.

4) Oilers send feelers out on some top four defencemen.

Kaberle, McCabe, White and others are still out there. Of more possible interest might be a Keith Yandle or Mike Green from Washington. Oilers would have to move some significant pieces the other way, but with the extra bodies might be prepared to do so.


5) Oilers move two for one.

Could a player like Scott Hartnell and a pick work if the Oilers can send Cogs and Omark? There is no indication something like this is in the works, but it might make sense. Flyers keep making waves which mean they'll keep needing to clear space. Oilers have too many bodies. Maybe a deal like this or another player like a Hartnell works for both sides.

Two and a half days remaining. It's all the Edmonton Oilers have left in terms of time to make up their minds about the futures of some of the players on their roster.

Kovalev, Sturm, Neal, Stewart, Versteeg, Fisher and others are all names that have already been moved. Ales Hemsky, Dustin Penner and to a less extent Sam Gagner remain some of the few viable forward options for some twenty teams that are buying at this years deadline. The Kings, Coyotes, Wild, Capitals, Rangers and Predators are the names most commonly associated with Edmonton these past couple days.

The question becomes what does Steve Tambellini do? Reactions in Edmonton are mixed. There are plenty of fans who don't want either Hemsky or Penner to go. There are others who'd be fine with a move. The common denominator seems to be that if a move were to occur, the return should be an overpayment.

For teams like L.A. that means Brayden Schenn. In Phoenix, it's Oliver Ekman-Larrson or Kyle Turris. In Minnesota its Cam Barker. Two of those three I'd do. The other, as I would with many of the other supposed options available to Edmonton, would have me waiting for next year or this years draft to re-open conversations.

The only real guarantee, is that Edmonton is now a prime target for most of the NHL teams. Some teams have made their moves, but plenty remain. Yes, there are a few surprise trades that have happened like the Blues/Avs deal, which means there are others out there that likely few of us will guess are coming. But with so many teams looking at Penner, Hemsky and Smid among others that might be available, Tambellini is looking at a busy day whether he pulls the trigger or not.

But are we? For us fans, we might not ever see just how busy the Oilers get on Monday. To know for sure, we'll have to wait until the Oil Change TSN special at the end of March and even then we'll see if from a somewhat distorted and pro-Oilers point of view. We could be left at the end of Monday saying to ourselves "what happened to all the deals that were out there?"

Just because Tambellini is fielding calls, doesn't mean we'll see any trades. I predicted in a previous article that Hemsky or Penner being moved is a lock. I still feel that way. But one deal, may be all that we do if I'm right -- which I may not be.

Would you consider it a let down if nothing happened? If after all this talk, the Oilers stood pat and waited to the draft to grab another top three pick and trade some spare parts to fill in missing holes?

As fans, we watch games like the last five where the Oilers stood out as a team of the future. Then the 5-0 loss to St. Louis reminds us of how far we actually are. Do we really want to trade the only mildly reliable offence we have? I can see why the reaction is mixed.

What's your thought? Would you be upset if the Oilers did nothing? Would you be more upset if they did and you didn't like the return?

There is always lots of speculation in this final week leading up to the NHL trade deadline. Some of it's so far out there you wonder how it gained any steam. Some of it more on par to a trade two GM's might actually be working on. Here is what seems to be floating around currently in respect to the Edmonton Oilers.

L.A. Kings --

The newest rumor links the Kings to Oilers with Brayden Schenn coming to Edmonton for Ales Hemsky. There might be some smaller bits and pieces rounding out a deal like this, but those two components are the focal points. Dean Lombardi is actively seeking a top end scorer and is starting to feel the pressure to get something done as one of the many teams tied for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. He's always had his eye on Hemsky and if another team isn't in the picture, Penner is his backup plan which makes Edmonton a strong potential trading partner.

The chances the Oilers trade both Penner and Hemsky is not likely so what Tambellini will likely do is first make sure any offers are more than fair and likely an overpayment for either player. Since Tambellini has no real pressure to move either, he's got time to dictate the pace here. Once he's determined if an overpayment(s) exist, Tambellini should take the best offer on one player.

If the Kings are willing to part with Schenn for Hemsky the Oilers should sign off on that trade right away. As much as Oiler fans might want to keep Hemsky, sources like Bob McKenzie from TSN have it right that no way do the Kings move Brayden Schenn. He's a true gold mine of a player and should be ready if not next year, by 2013 to make a major impact in the NHL.

The argument here is that because the Kings need to win now and not in 2013, it's being greatly debated that the Kings might in fact be willing to move Schenn now if they were to ever consider it. They'd rather not, but if it means getting into the playoffs versus not, who knows.

For the Edmonton Oilers, the key is that any deal helps the not too distant future for this young inexperienced team. Tambellini doesn't want to wait too long for any return for Hemsky or Penner and Schenn is ready to make a jump to the NHL. He has size, hockey smarts and has been tearing up the WHL. He's the type of prospect Hemsky should be traded for if he's traded.

There are many who will argue and I agree that this is a massive stretch. That Schenn is of far greater value than Hemsky. In almost all circumstances this is true but one -- pure desparation on the part of Lombardi. If he gets needy enough, strange things could happen. Most feel the Dallas/Pittsburg deal is one-sided and it seems to be. Yet it still happened.

More realistic might be the Wayne Simmonds plus pick(s) for Hemsky option that might or might not exist. Again many will tell you that Lombardi in no way wants to trade Simmonds. Those people are probably correct. But want to and need to in order for deal to happen might be two different things.

There could always be Colten Tuebert or Thomas Hickey, but I don't think either prospect gives the Oilers enough return to move Hemsky at this point. While the Oilers defence is weak in the NHL today, their prospects look promising. Obtain more promise from the Kings doesn't really help Edmonton in the next two years which is a key number for the Oilers.

Edmonton is well aware that they need immediate help on the blueline and they need size and grit who can play. Simmonds fills one of those needs. Schenn doesn't but he's a top centre prospect that one shouldn't be willing to pass up on.

I still think one of Hemsky or Penner get moved, but my guess is that despite the popularity of the rumors it happens with the Kings, someone else is the ending destination for either forward.

While few can confirm it, I'm here to tell you that it is a lock that one of Edmonton's Ales Hemsky or Dustin Penner will be traded by the Feb 28th NHL trade deadline.

How could I possibly know this you ask? Especially considering there has been nothing but non-detailed rumors on the possible trades actually happening? The answer is simple. It is a sellers market in the NHL.

In fact, like no other year that I can recall, this year in the NHL more teams are on the cusp of getting into the NHL playoffs than ever before. More teams stand a chance than don't and there are few teams, namely Edmonton, Ottawa and the Islanders that are the only clear sellers in the market.

Teams like Toronto, New Jersey, St. Louis, Florida and others who should probably also be selling and out of the playoff picture, have gone on record having not thrown in the towel. Toronto sold assets like Versteeg, Beauchemin and Kaberle, but are currently looking to buy for a final run. New Jersey and Calgary who at the start of the year looked hopeless, are now all of sudden either in the playoff picture or making a run so strong that it doesn't seem out of the realm of possible they squeeze in.

What does this mean? It means that more teams than ever before are buying. The law of supply a demand is dictating the overpayments some teams are making and it's why so many major deals have already happened.

Teams are jumping to get ahead of the market knowing that in general NHL teams who buy specifically on deadline day overpay. There are far too many teams who will still feel they have a chance at the playoffs or need that one final piece to get in that they'll be making the same calls to the same three teams. With so many teams buying, the overpayments are bound to be massive. Not good news for many NHL teams who will find themselves on the outs if they don't have moveable assets.

Enter the Edmonton Oilers.

You'll find many fans who won't want to see Edmonton trade either Hemsky or Penner (especially if either has indicated they'd like to remain Oilers for a fair price past their current contracts), but Oilers Steve Tambellini may be faced with offers far too good to pass up.

Both Hemsky and Penner are pieces the Oilers can include in their rebuild should they choose to stay in Edmonton. Both are useful talents and the Oilers likely don't want to move either one. Tambellini simply may not have a choice if the longer term future of the team is more important.

In recent years and as is often done by fans of any NHL team, players tend to be overvalued and overrated. Locals fall in love with their teams rosters and don't place a realistic value of what that player might receive on the open market. This years trade deadline might actually provide the real dreamers with a realistic idea of what a return might be.

Let's take Mike Fisher who was traded from the Senators (a team almost sold out of what it is looking to be selling). He's realistically a good third line player. On some teams a 2nd line center. In years past, he might not get the return of a first round pick. This year he did and a conditional 2nd or 3rd rounder.

So did Kris Versteeg. In fact, Versteeg is overpaid yet still got Toronto a first round and a third round pick.

There are other examples but the key here is that all deals were done well before the actual deadline for players of good but not overwhelming talent. At the deadline, it is reasonable to expect the return could have been higher when multiple teams might have wanted to outbid each other and the trades really get out of hand.

It's why the Oilers are waiting on offers for both Penner and Hemsky and why they gambled on someone having some interest in a rusty, massively overpaid and out of shape Sheldon Souray. The gamble didn't work, but the logic behind it is and was sound.

While Souray is still an Oiler, Ales Hemsky and Dustin Penner are not however Sheldon Souray.

Both Oiler forwards have value for other NHL teams. Perhaps Hemsky moreso than Penner, but both players have gathered some interest and both players can only be traded by the Oilers to one team of some fifteen that might be in the market. Both have fair dollar values attracted to their contracts and while neither are really rentals, both only have one year remaining after this at a reasonable cap hit.

Yes, there are players like Alex Kovalev, David Booth, Jason Arnott, Jackub Voracek, Milan Hejduk, who might be in play. Some however are on teams that aren't throwing in the towel and even two wins leading up the 28th could make them buyers and not sellers.

What would or should Tambellini do if a team like L.A. felt that adding an Ales Hemsky would put them in the hunt and give them a legit shot? Would they part with Wayne Simmonds or Brayden Schenn? Not normally. But if they felt they had to do something and it came down to a bidding war, they might.

What would the Oilers do if a team in need of a 2nd line and possibly first line power forward like Penner came calling? If they offered a first and 2nd round pick like they did for Versteeg? What if they had to outbid someone else and threw in a faceoff 3rd or 4th liner? Would you do it? Tambellini might and who could blame him?

What if a team like Atlanta who might not be selling or buying today, but could be in five days offered up Zach Bogosian for a proven scorer like Hemsky? Would Tambellini do it? I might.

I'm the first to admit that at any other time this might be an over value of both Hemsky and Penner. But this is not any other time. It's the last minute hour of trade deadline in a year that almost everyone but the Oilers and Senators feel they have a shot. The Senators have sold a lot of what they are selling. The Oilers have yet to sell anything. What would teams do to obtain the assets the Oilers might willingly give up for the right price?

I'm willing to bet someone is going to offer the sun, moon and stars and Tambellini will take it at least once. I'm also willing to bet that names like Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid, Kurtis Foster, Andrew Cogliano and Ryan Jones get a good look from other teams and the Oilers find themselves making some interesting decisions.

There's a few things I'm eagerly anticipating for tonights (or at least this later afternoons) game against the Red Wings. In fact so much so, that in my absence from posting on this site due to the hustle and bustle of real life hitting me like a dump truck, I took a few mintues to share my thoughts.

Tonights game will tell me a lot about the new make-up of this team...

Which Penner Will We Get?

Dustin Penner by all accounts (if you're not a huge Oiler fan and watching every game) based on his numbers is having an alright season so far. In only 13 games played, Penner is on pace for 31 goals in an 82 game season and 44 points. The points category is shy, but 31 goals isn't something most fans would complain about.

The problem and the cause for some complaint amongst Oiler fans and media is Dustin's overall compete level from game to game. So much so, that trade talks have come up and teams like the Ottawa Senators have been rumored to have some interest.

With Shawn Horcoff still not ready to return, this is a chance for Dustin Penner to step-up his game. To be seen as a leader on this team with a lot of young rookies and show them that when one man -- an important one like your team captain -- goes down, the rest of the team needs to find another gear and get the job done.

That certainly didn't happen in Carolina.

Speaking of Young Guys

I'm extremely curious to watch how players like Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle come out of the gate tonight. I've yet to question Hall's compete level. He's made rookies mistakes and often tried to do too much, but he's also often been the most dangerous Oiler even when not getting his name added to the score sheet.

The benching by coach Tom Renney can't be sitting well with a player of Hall's compete level. I expect the first few minutes of the game for both Hall and Eberle to be quite interesting. I think as rookies, they'll be out to prove a point.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that neither like the idea of Jeff Skinner in Carolina being looked at as the leading candidate for the Calder trophy. Skinner right now is running away with the race, but it's early.

Break-out game?

We've yet to see a break-out game by any Oiler. Last season, while players weren't necessarily consistently getting on the scoreboard every game, it appeared that way because players like Gagner, Penner and Hemsky had 4 point nights in some games. That's yet to happen this season.

I'm not suggesting that of all the teams for which to break-out, we can expect it to happen against Detroit, but someone might need to get themselves rolling. Could there finally be a game that sees one line earn 12-13 points in one game? That would be nice.

No surprise: the Oilers named veteran centre Shawn Horcoff as their new team captain on Wednesday. Bit of a surprise: Horcoff looked like a great leader on Thursday, playing well and seeming to inspire the young Oilers on and off the ice.

Here’s a bit of Oilers’ history. Horcoff is the15th player to wear the “C” since the team joined the WHA (in 1972) and the NHL (in 1979). Take a pencil: how many can you name right off the? Give yourself an A if you can name 10 Oilers’ captains and an extra point for naming the three Oilers’ captains who were also Oilers’ Head Coaches. [In case you want to check, see below.]

Horcoff succeeded Ethan Moreau, claimed by the Columbus Blue Jackets last June after the Oilers put him on waivers. Horcoff is 32 – old for a hockey player – but young for a leader. He is starting his 10th NHL season, after Edmonton took him in the fourth round (99th overall) of the 1998 NHL entry draft.

So, how good can Horcoff be as a leader? He strikes me as a solid guy, with many leadership characteristics – except, perhaps, his ability to put up big goals and assists numbers – a trait that seems to be popular with other hockey teams but not, obviously, with the current Oilers. It seemed fitting that one bounced off him into the net – he was right where he had to be, blocking for the kids.

The Oilers need Horcoff to be a good leader because they need great leadership specifically and leadership is really important to any successful sports. A good captain can lead his team to success and can also help a young team and younger players be better. On the other hand, weak leadership skills can hinder a team’s chances of competing and bonding successfully – something last year’s Oilers know all too well.

What do the current Oilers need? Obviously, they need to escape injury and create space for young players to grow. But, the Oilers also need a leadership that provides emotional strength and models conditioning in every sense of the word – physical and mental. Leadership will be needed when more established teams benefit from biased officiating – we all know young teams don’t get all the calls veterans do. Sure, leadership does come from coaches, but leaders also emerge from within the team itself. Ergo, selecting a good captain is crucial.

Horcoff needs to do more than wear the captain’s “C.” He must also lead by his example and passionate belief that the team is more important than the individual. How he handles conflicts that eventually rise when the team loses (is there a chance they won’t?) a few close games and comes under pressure will be crucial. We don’t yet know how the youthful Oilers will act under stress, but we do know that Horcoff’s ability to handle problems will be crucial. How does he show his own anger? How does he behave professionally and responsibly despite his own personal feelings of frustration? All keys!

Here are a couple of other areas that sometimes slip under the radar. For example, how good will he be at building relationships with other members of the team, in good times and bad? For example, when a young player gets sent to the minors? I hope Horcoff takes each player – coming or going – aside. He clearly needs to talk with those going down or welcome those young players coming up for a shot. Plus, there is an extra burden being captain while still playing. It can be difficult to inspire, motivate, and raise team morale while you are trying to raise your own spirits.

So far, Horcoff has passed the test. We know he will be dependable. We bet he will be a good listener. We hope he will be motivating and inspiring, and will remain calm and positive under pressure. If he can do these things, he will only add to the Oiler’s success – whatever it might be – this season. We can hope for a great amount – the first positive step has been taken.

Team Captains
Note: This list includes Oiler captains from both the NHL and WHA.

Al Hamilton, 1972–76
Glen Sather, 1976–77
Paul Shmyr, 1977–79
Ron Chipperfield, 1979–80
Blair MacDonald, 1980–81
Lee Fogolin, 1981–83
Wayne Gretzky, 1983–88
Mark Messier, 1988–91
Kevin Lowe, 1991–92
Craig MacTavish, 1992–94
No Captain, 1994–95 (Lockout)
Shayne Corson, 1995
Kelly Buchberger, 1995–99
Doug Weight, 1999–2001
Jason Smith, 2001–07
Ethan Moreau, 2007–10
Shawn Horcoff, 2010–present

There is a funny scene in the movie The Replacements, when coach Jimmy McGinty asks his players what scares them on the field. Clifford Franklin talks about bees, and the whole conversation goes off the rails. But then, Shane Falco (Keanu Reeves) adds: You're playing and you think everything is going fine. Then one thing goes wrong. And then another. And another. You try to fight back, but the harder you fight, the deeper you sink. Until you can't move... you can't breathe... because you're in over your head. Like quicksand.

Last year, the Oilers learned about quicksand. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong. They were sucked in and, as Clifford Franklin adds, Quicksand's a scary motha, man. I mean, first of all, it suck you right in, and even if you scream, you get all that muck in your mouth...

Well, the Oilers had it in their mouths – everywhere, actually. But, a recent quote by Dustin Penner hints that those days are over.

Penner is quoted, You never know when the stars could align. There's been a lot of change through the management and staff and the team, kind of a fresh start. We're changing the culture here. With that comes a new mindset and a new feeling. You can just tell it's a good feeling. I think we'll surprise some people.

This quote comes on the heels of an 8-2 victory over the Canucks – with both the youngsters and the veterans scoring goals – pretty heady stuff. Horcoff was leading and feeding the kids. The kids were coming through. And, Penner was feeling good. He should. He contributed; and, an 8 goal game is pretty rare. How rare? Well, all last year the Oilers didn’t have 8 goals. Not preseason. Not regular season. Eight goals is heady stuff.

If we look at his statement, we find a couple of really interesting and positive things. And it is the positive that holds the key to the Oilers’ year, I think. The Oilers have to keep thinking positive thoughts – which come easy when you are winning and much less easy when you aren’t. Positive thinking impacts one’s mental attitude and then one’s outward physical activities. But the mental is most important, because it produces growth and success. If the mental attitude expects results, the physical usually follows.

There is a lot of current talk about the “power of attraction,” which basically means that whatever people think will happen does happen. Some of this is downright goofy, but the idea that someone who anticipates happy, healthy, and successful outcomes will attract thos is far from ridiculous. What the head expects, the body finds.

The fragility of this positive feeling remains to be seen, but Penner’s words tell us it is present – and this is a good first step. That, of course, and a high skill set and a good game plan. But, Penner is right – as was Shane Falco: positive and negative thinking are both contagious.

Let’s hope this feeling rubs off on the team. Perhaps, in hockey, the positive or negative impact players have on each other is greater than in other sports. When things go well, they really go well. When they don’t, well – ask the 2009-10 Oilers. Already Penner is leading the team by affecting how the young players think. All people, not just hockey players, are disposed to help others who are positive and dislike and avoid those who are negative. In hockey, even truer!

We know that negative thoughts, words, and attitudes can be cancerous to a team – they bring with them unhappy actions. There is a physical aspect to this: when the mind is negative, real poisons are released into the blood. Such mental unhappiness and negativity then turn to physical failure and frustration. In hockey, that translates into losing.

Ok, Mr. Penner. Keep up the positive thinking. The team is 3-0 in the preseason. I am not taking the record itself all that seriously, but I am noticing – and liking – Penner’s positive attitude. Let us hope it spreads and stays. Perhaps then the Oilers could surprise.

Two years ago, at Comox’s Filberg Festival, I heard Fred Eaglesmith tell the crowd at his musical show that he was looking for his sixth ex-wife. People laughed. Of course, the joke was the mix of optimism and realism such a statement evokes – one would think that, after five failed marriages, a bit of reality would set in. Alas, one is always hoping for better – thinking that this time is THE time but knowing somehow that you are probably wrong.

So, Oiler fans, here we go again. And the metaphor about being married to the team isn’t far wrong. New season: new romance. The past season and off-season was filled with love, hate, rejection, being left at the altar, and all sorts of junior high antics of “who likes whom.” Sheldon Souray – who whispered in the wrong ear about considering a new lover – gets totally rejected in a move more of anger than insight. Mike Comrie, cute-enough without much of a downside, gets let go for who knows why. And the new boys in summer camp bring out the swoons of the public – they are, after all, so very winsome. And they promise to make our hearts flutter widely.

Like it or not, we are married to our Oilers. Our romance is more of heart than head. Yet, with all our heart-fluttering optimism, isn’t there just something in our heads that reminds us that perhaps this year’s team will be like looking for our 6th ex-wife? Will we start with wild romance and end with heartbreak?

There is an old Buddhist story about a man chased off a cliff by a charging lion. Falling to his death in the valley below, he happens to grab a slender flowering plant growing from the side of the cliff face. He looks up: lion. He looks below: valley floor. Then he looks at the plant and says: “What a beautiful flower.”

Perhaps we Oilers fans should become Buddhists and come to appreciate the “beautiful flower” that Oilers’ hockey has always been and always will be to us. We might be on our way to another train wreck, but there will be beautiful scenery along the way.